GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KCMax]

Fire Dayton
Fire Ned

Let the new stat-oriented GM decide who he wants to keep, get rid of.

Ok. Who do you hire as the new GM and Manager?

I get to be GM, and you get to be manager.

But seriously, any GM candidate with a good stat record. David Forst, Paul DePodesta, Brian Minniti, Mike Chernoff, Farhan Zaidi. Anyone that has worked in the successful stat organizations - Boston, Oakland, St. Louis, Texas.

Our payroll is right around $92 million. Next year, if we made no moves and filled all vacated salary cap hits with $500k salaries, our payroll would be very roughly around $88 million (I'm totally making up the arbitration numbers and trying to overestimate if anything). If we buy Butler and Davis out (or trade them), we drop down to $69 million. That leaves a gap of $23 million if we are comfortable getting back to $92 million overall.

This handsome fellow posts that we should be at $80 million next year in payroll, with about $10-15 million to spend, plus more if you trade Davis or Holland.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2014/7/22/5 ... 15-payroll

[bobbyhawks]

This handsome fellow posts that we should be at $80 million next year in payroll, with about $10-15 million to spend, plus more if you trade Davis or Holland.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2014/7/22/5 ... 15-payroll

Thanks for the link! My arbitration WAGs were still too low for Holland, Hosmer, Cain, and Moose. Since the article also assumed Davis stays I was off by Davis plus the arbitration guys (didn't realized the buyout was $2.5 million). That entire situation is depressing. $10-$15 million is not going to land a top tier free agent, but $23 million would give the flexibility to at least consider it.

On a side note, under the scenario above, we could be paying our returning setup man and closer $14.5 million or 15% of our projected $95 million payroll a year after having the worst record in the majors in one run games.

[phuqueue]

So, if this season is over, what pieces do we have to build on next year and who should we get rid of? Here's my thoughts:

1B-Hosmer: I still think he can be a good power hitter, gold glove.
2B-Infante: Solid professional, better than anything we've had at 2B in a decade.
SS-Escobar: Good defense and has shown an ability this year to work the count.
3B- ???
RF- ???
CF- Cain: Solid defensively, injury suspect
LF- Gordon: Solid piece.
DH- ???
SP- Duffy, Ventura, Vargas, Guthrie, ???
RF- Davis, Herrera, Holland, ???

Trade Shields and Butler (if possible) perhaps Holland or Davis if you can get a good haul. Need power.

Hosmer is maddeningly inconsistent. Seemed like he finally figured it out last year, then he clearly hadn't, but now he's at least got his OPS back above .700 (uh, that's something I guess) thanks to a .940 OPS over the past four weeks. We stuck through with Gordon and it finally worked out, and Hosmer has at least shown a lot more promise than Gordon did during those rough first few years, so I'm not jumping ship, but I'd feel much better about him if he could have an entire decent year.

Infante has lost 100 points on his OPS compared to last year. I mean he's signed for decent money for years to come so he's realistically not going anywhere, but that he's better than anything we've had at 2B in a decade (actually, call it a half decade -- five years ago Alberto Callaspo was better than Infante) is more a testament to how putrid we've been at the position recently than to Infante being good.

We're not going to be able to trade Shields or Butler, at least not for anything worthwhile. Both guys are in contract years (the Royals have a $12.5M option or $1M buyout on Butler for next year) and are having terrible seasons.

[KCMax]

Shields is not having a terrible year. He still has a lot of value.

[MidtownCat]

Hey, with a good day today Moose just may get his batting average above the elusive .200 mark. In a small way, he almost feels like a real major league hitter.

[phuqueue]

Shields is not having a terrible year. He still has a lot of value.

"Terrible year" is an exaggeration/overstatement (for Shields, anyway), but he's been the worst member of our rotation (actually just checked, Guthrie is narrowly edging him out for that dubious title at the moment). How much do you really think you'll get for a two month rental of a guy mired in his worst season in years? Most teams seem to have realized that it doesn't make sense to sell your farm system for short-term acquisitions anymore, especially with the current CBA providing fewer incentives for deals like that than the old one did. If Moore can get something for Shields, he should go for it, but I'm not optimistic. Shields has more value to us (the draft pick after the season is over, at the very least, plus the chance that he starts playing better and the somewhat lesser chance that it's enough to keep us alive in the playoff race) than he does to most other teams.

[KCMax]

He's got a pretty established track record. Teams will pay for that. Projection models have him pitching the rest of the year as slightly worse than David Price. I bet he'll be in demand from teams that think the Rays are asking for crazy returns for Price.

What other SP are out there for a trade that look better than Shields other than Price? Not Jake Peavy. Not Ian Kennedy.

Okay, I guess Shields isn't really "out there for a trade." About zero chance the Royals move him.

[bobbyhawks]

He's got a pretty established track record. Teams will pay for that. Projection models have him pitching the rest of the year as slightly worse than David Price. I bet he'll be in demand from teams that think the Rays are asking for crazy returns for Price.

What other SP are out there for a trade that look better than Shields other than Price? Not Jake Peavy. Not Ian Kennedy.

Okay, I guess Shields isn't really "out there for a trade." About zero chance the Royals move him.

GMDM is still too proud to even consider it.

[phuqueue]

He's got a pretty established track record. Teams will pay for that. Projection models have him pitching the rest of the year as slightly worse than David Price. I bet he'll be in demand from teams that think the Rays are asking for crazy returns for Price.

What other SP are out there for a trade that look better than Shields other than Price? Not Jake Peavy. Not Ian Kennedy.

Okay, I guess Shields isn't really "out there for a trade." About zero chance the Royals move him.

If anything, Steamer and ZIPS project Shields to be slightly worse than he has been. ZIPS has him at a 3.70 ERA (currently 3.58), 1.25 WHIP (currently 1.27), 3.53 K/BB (currently 4.41), 7.93 K/9 (currently 7.53). Steamer: 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.21 K/BB, 7.52 K/9. I don't see a projection on unearned runs, but his actual R/9 currently stands at 4.40, better only than Guthrie (who's allowed only one unearned run and has given up five runs fewer than Shields, but has pitched 17 fewer innings). Shields has been on the mound for 13 of the total 29 unearned runs the Royals have surrendered this season, and as a result his ERA doesn't reflect 18% of the runs he has allowed.

Price's projections: 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 9.11 K/9 (ZIPS); 2.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 8.87 K/9 (Steamer). Price, for what it's worth, has also given up his share of unearned runs, although not as many as Shields, and playing in front of a worse defense (FanGraphs has the Royals with the best defense in baseball, Tampa ranks 13th). His R/9 is 3.53. I don't think any of that is only "slightly" better than Shields's projections.

I'm not disputing that teams will be interested in Shields. I don't think teams will be willing to give up nearly enough to actually get him (or similarly, if we actually did trade him, I think we will be very disappointed with the haul). Blockbuster deadline deals in which teams gut their farm systems for the last two months of a guy's contract aren't as common as they used to be and it seems unrealistic to hope for one in this case as Shields is somewhat stumbling into his contract year.

[KCMax]

[chaglang]

This has been a really interesting trade deadline. So far, the Indians have dealt a SP and their starting SS, even though they're nearly even with the Royals in the standings. The Red Sox have traded anything not nailed down. The A's are very aggressive.

The Royals have been linked with Emilio Bonifacio, thought about AJ Burnett and backed off, thought about Andrew Miller until the Orioles traded for him. I don't think this team could have been fixed at the trade deadline, but it's almost shocking to watch them do nothing (so far) in this, Dayton Moore's season of seasons.

[brewcrew1000]

I can't believe the Tigers got Price, The tigers are the new yankees and that little ceasars pizza baron will do anything to win a damn championship

[beautyfromashes]

I can't believe the Tigers got Price, The tigers are the new yankees and that little ceasars pizza baron will do anything to win a damn championship

Sounds like Ewing Kauffman - RIP.

[aknowledgeableperson]

So far into this season and all that the Royals have proven is that they are an inconsistent team. The team is only 1.5 games out of the playoffs. 5th highest batting average but 21st in runs scored, maybe because the team is dead last (by a safe margin) in home runs. For fielding the team is in the middle of the MLB pack. More or less the teams pitching has been the saving grace for the team.

[KCMax]

Really cool article on the Royals Academy, the brainchild of Ewing Kauffman which closed its doors 40 years ago. It took raw athletes passed over in the draft and taught them how to play the game, producing five big leaguers including Frank White, UL Washington, and Ron Washington.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-co ... 40797.html

Weird to think of the Royals of being an "innovative" organization now.

[bobbyhawks]

So far into this season and all that the Royals have proven is that they are an inconsistent team. The team is only 1.5 games out of the playoffs. 5th highest batting average but 21st in runs scored, maybe because the team is dead last (by a safe margin) in home runs. For fielding the team is in the middle of the MLB pack. More or less the teams pitching has been the saving grace for the team.

The homer ranking is pretty pathetic, but the fact that we are also dead last in walks makes it even more amazing that we are still within sight of a WC position.

I've been hyper-critical of Yost and his management style, but I feel like I do have to commend him (as I just noticed) on his stolen base record, wich is currently above 80% for the second season in a row. That may be more due to a couple of really great baserunners than anything, but it is still pretty great. We are 3rd in MLB in caught stealing percentage (not being caught), and we have 28 more steals than the next best team by volume above us. That may explain a bit of how we are able to overcome low OBP, very little power, and the inability to walk.

[KCMax]

So far into this season and all that the Royals have proven is that they are an inconsistent team. The team is only 1.5 games out of the playoffs. 5th highest batting average but 21st in runs scored, maybe because the team is dead last (by a safe margin) in home runs. For fielding the team is in the middle of the MLB pack. More or less the teams pitching has been the saving grace for the team.

How are you getting that this team is middle of the pack in fielding? The Royals lead the league in defensive runs by a large margin.

[WSPanic]

So far into this season and all that the Royals have proven is that they are an inconsistent team. The team is only 1.5 games out of the playoffs. 5th highest batting average but 21st in runs scored, maybe because the team is dead last (by a safe margin) in home runs. For fielding the team is in the middle of the MLB pack. More or less the teams pitching has been the saving grace for the team.

How are you getting that this team is middle of the pack in fielding? The Royals lead the league in defensive runs by a large margin.

I don't mean to go all SABR on you, but the highest team fielding percentage is .988 and the lowest team fielding percentage is .980. The Royals are .984 - thus middle of the pack. Duh.

[pash]

.

[WSPanic]

I was really hoping the sarcasm came through on that last one. Perhaps not.