GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by KCtonic »

It's kinda fun to go back to the posts in this thread from April and May of 2014.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that this year pretty much proved folks on this forum's predictions don't mean a whole lot. I'm impressed with what the Royals organization did here and that makes me much more optimistic for their future.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by bobbyhawks »

AllThingsKC wrote:A young Royals team loses Game 7 of a World Series by 1 run to a team that has won 3 of the last 5 titles with a payroll bigger than the Royals and one pitcher that was possibly the best starter in postseason history.

THE SEASON WAS A FAILURE!
This was the oldest Royals team by average age (28.60 [BatAge +PAge]/2) since 2006 (28.65). It was also the highest Royals payroll in history, so a lot of the narratives are misleading.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by NDTeve »

phuqueue wrote:
AllThingsKC wrote:
phuqueue wrote: See you all in thirty more years.
You're kidding me, right?

A young Royals team loses Game 7 of a World Series by 1 run to a team that has won 3 of the last 5 titles with a payroll bigger than the Royals and one pitcher that was possibly the best starter in postseason history.

THE SEASON WAS A FAILURE!
I didn't say the season was a failure, but I did predict that we won't be in the World Series again, which is not really going that far out on a limb.
Great post. &&&
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by AllThingsKC »

bobbyhawks wrote:
AllThingsKC wrote:A young Royals team loses Game 7 of a World Series by 1 run to a team that has won 3 of the last 5 titles with a payroll bigger than the Royals and one pitcher that was possibly the best starter in postseason history.

THE SEASON WAS A FAILURE!
This was the oldest Royals team by average age (28.60 [BatAge +PAge]/2) since 2006 (28.65). It was also the highest Royals payroll in history, so a lot of the narratives are misleading.

Excellent points. But compare that to the Giants.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by beautyfromashes »

I think we'll start to see a lot of parallels between this team and the Royals in the late 1970s. I think that it gets easier playing in the postseason after you have some experience in it. The Royals won the West in 1976,77, & 78 before finally making it to the World Series in 1980 and winning in 1985. I think this will be a consistent playoff team going forward. We have a strong base of a team, we'll have more money to spend going forward and good free agents will be easier to get if they know that we have a shot at winning it all.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by grovester »

Lesson from this year?

JUST. MAKE. THE. PLAYOFFS.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by beautyfromashes »

pash wrote:We don't even know who's going to be on this team over the next several seasons.
????

Hosmer
Moustakas
Cain
Escobar
Ventura
Holland or Davis
Herrera
Perez
Duffy
Finnegan
Zimmer
Vargas
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by FangKC »

World Series Is Like A 'Three Hour Commercial' For Kansas City

http://tinyurl.com/q57etds
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by aknowledgeableperson »

pash wrote:We'll see. There are still a lot of question marks about this team's future, particularly about the ownership's willingness to spend the money it will take to keep 2014 from looking like a fluke after a few years have passed.

We don't even know who's going to be on this team over the next several seasons. The Royals have several important pieces hitting free agency this year and a slew of them heading into arbitration and expensive option years. The bullpen is unlikely to be as fearsome in the future, and it will be a real challenge to put together a rotation as effective as what we've seen the last couple of years. It's going to take a lot of cash just to keep the hitting and fielding we have, and (this October not withstanding) the hitting needs some upgrades.

Is there reason for optimism? Sure. The Royals are in a far better spot today, after losing a World Series, than they've been in a very long time. They'll be working with half (rather than a tenth) of the resources of the big boys in the years ahead. But they played out of their minds this past month. They've had only a couple of other stretches in recent seasons when they played this well. So it also sort of looks to me like they put together a magical run and came up just short. It's hard to expect more magic.

I would be hoping for a much brighter future if David Glass didn't own this team. Maybe he'll surprise me.
Only three FAs this year - Butler, Aoki and Shields.
Bullpen should be strong again, maybe not as strong like this but still top flight. An added plus may be with Hochevar possibly returning.
The infield returns with the likelihood of better offensive seasons from Moose and Hosmer.
The outfield remains strong with Gordon, Cain, and Dyson.
Starting pitching should be better than average with projected starters of Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas, Duffy with the possibilities of Finnegan and/or Zimmer.

Anyway here is a take on the Royals. From Time Magazine, November 3, 2014 issue.
No matter the outcome, the two teams, both of which beat favored opponents to advance, share a style fit for the times. With steroids largely gone from the major leagues, balls are no longer clearing the fences at ridiculous rates. Power hitting is out. Pitching and defense are in. “I think small ball is the key to the game,” Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco’s very large third baseman, said during the National League Championship Series.

The speedy Royals, in particular, embody the current dink-and-doink game, which rewards grinding out runs through bunting and base stealing, and playing tight defense. In their pennant-clinching 2-1 win over Baltimore, the Royals scored both runs in the bottom of the first inning. The balls never even left the infield.

“Catch the ball if you’re on defense, and utilize speed to create runs on offense,” says John Schuerholz, president of the Atlanta Braves, who was Kansas City’s general manager during its last playoff run in the 1980s. “That was the game when it was started–pitchers dominated, and runs were hard to come by. We’re going back to the future.”
...
Since the end of the steroid-fueled offensive boom a decade or so ago, pro baseball has become a pitcher’s game. Home runs per game are at their lowest levels since 1992. Teams scored 4.07 runs per game during the 2014 regular season, according to stats site Baseball-Reference.com–the lowest total in 33 years. In each of the past seven seasons, baseball set a new all-time high for strikeouts per game. “I mean, my goodness, it amazes me,” says Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona, who led Boston to a pair of World Series titles in 2004 and 2007. “It’s not just starters. It’s bullpen, it’s setup men, it’s closers. You just have one good arm coming in after another.”

Francona may as well have been describing the Royals bullpen. The one-two-three punch of Kelvin Herrera in the seventh inning, Wade Davis in the eighth and Greg Holland in the ninth was close to unhittable during the run to the World Series. When opposing teams make contact, the Royals’ defense is better than anyone else’s at getting them out. According to FanGraphs.com, Kansas City players collectively finished with the highest Ultimate Zone Rating–an advanced metric that measures defensive value–in the majors. The team’s speedy outfield is like a moat. “They run everything down in the outfield,” says Francona. “So they save runs defensively and add runs with their speed.”

Kansas City’s 95 home runs were the fewest in the majors this season. But no team had more stolen bases, and the Royals have kept running in the postseason. The last big-league club to reach the World Series while finishing last in home runs–but first in swipes–was the 1987 St. Louis Cardinals during the last small-ball era.

These days, if you swing for the fences, you’re more likely than ever to strike out. So just try to put the ball in play–Royals hitters have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors–and take your chances with your legs. At the same time, make sure you have defensive players who can turn potential hits into outs. It’s a formula that Kansas City, a team that can’t afford power players anyway, might never have adopted were it a big-city squad with a big-city payroll.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by chaglang »

AllThingsKC wrote: I do believe in my heart of hearts that Gordon would have scored. And if not, would anyone be that upset with him being called out at home plate? I wouldn't have blamed him given the circumstances.
Rany posted a link to a video of Gordon's run. I didn't have the heart to look at it, but a friend tells me that the play wouldn't have been particularly close. Gordon would have been out. And hey, after all the other miracles they've pulled off, why wouldn't Salvy bloop a hit into center? That was how they lived and died all month.
AllThingsKC wrote: That has to be how close a team can get to winning the World Series without winning the World Series.
The 2011 Rangers and 1986 Red Sox had a lead and were one strike away. To me that would be a shade worse, but it's really the difference between 9 and 10 on the pain scale.

Anyway, that was a heck of a lot of fun. My oldest woke up every morning and asked if the Royals had won the night before. When I told her they lost Wednesday night, she couldn't quite believe that was the last game. It was fun going out to a packed and rowdy ALCS game. It was fun seeing so many people in Royals gear. It was fun getting Royals texts during from old friends I hadn't talked to much in years. Turning on the tv and seeing World Series baseball being played at the K never stopped being surreal. That was fun.

My wife and I lived in Boston when they won in 2004. That was fun and memorable for obvious reasons, but there weren't a lot of New Englanders who weren't already fairly knowledgable about baseball. The Red Sox are inescapable there in a way that no sports team is here. But it was fun to see THAT change a bit, too. Last week my sister asked me to explain the basics of baseball to her. She's the furthest thing from a sports fan but watched every game. Even my mom, whose baseball roots go back to the Red Sox and western Massachusetts, said she was surprised at how hard she took the loss. Will they care next year? Who knows. But this playoff run was something new that we got to share, and that's awesome.

It's going to be a long offseason with no more of Salvy's Instagram videos of him harassing Cain.

Finally, I'm glad that there weren't any memorable blunders or meltdowns from the Royals in Game 7. Guthrie was solid, good enough to win under other circumstances. Apart from the Morse bloop, Herrera/Davis/Holland were great again. Ned went to the pen at the right time for the right guys. It lets everyone remember this run for what it was, rather than how it ended. Reality intruded in the end, but man, what a month.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by Highlander »

chaglang wrote:
AllThingsKC wrote: I do believe in my heart of hearts that Gordon would have scored. And if not, would anyone be that upset with him being called out at home plate? I wouldn't have blamed him given the circumstances.
Rany posted a link to a video of Gordon's run. I didn't have the heart to look at it, but a friend tells me that the play wouldn't have been particularly close. Gordon would have been out. And hey, after all the other miracles they've pulled off, why wouldn't Salvy bloop a hit into center? That was how they lived and died all month.
When I saw the ball go to the wall and then the outfielder mishandle it again, I thought for sure it was an inside-the-park home run with a fleet footed Gordon doing the running. I suspected that in a series with practically no errors, he figured it was a single at best and he took his time to get down to first base before kicking it into high gear. Had he hustled out of the block, we would have had a tie going into the 10th but San Francisco would have had a rested bullpen while we had already spent HDH.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by Highlander »

FangKC wrote:World Series Is Like A 'Three Hour Commercial' For Kansas City

http://tinyurl.com/q57etds
As I watched the series, I thought it was difficult to get too excited about KC other than the fact that we have a nice ballpark and some pretty good fans. Nary a shot of the city was shown and when the series was in San Francisco, they showed a few poorly set up shots of the P&L District (note the comments section of the article you posted - the guy from NJ thought it would be nice to visit KC for the P&L District).

Seems there was a little more exposure to the city proper in the playoffs. It's a great stadium - one of the best in baseball - but so poorly placed to show off the city.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by aknowledgeableperson »

Rany posted a link to a video of Gordon's run. I didn't have the heart to look at it, but a friend tells me that the play wouldn't have been particularly close. Gordon would have been out. And hey, after all the other miracles they've pulled off, why wouldn't Salvy bloop a hit into center? That was how they lived and died all month.
There was one replay with a great camera angle. It showed Gordon heading into 3rd with the 3rd base coach giving him the stop sign. Haven't seen the various videos side-by-side but the timing I have put together the ball was heading to the relay man before Gordon hit 3rd, There are a lot of what-ifs but IMO it was a proper call. If Gordon would have tried to score and get out there would be many complaining about taking the bat away from Salvy. Just think of the discussion earlier about the attempted steal by Butler in the wild card game.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by bobbyhawks »

aknowledgeableperson wrote:
Rany posted a link to a video of Gordon's run. I didn't have the heart to look at it, but a friend tells me that the play wouldn't have been particularly close. Gordon would have been out. And hey, after all the other miracles they've pulled off, why wouldn't Salvy bloop a hit into center? That was how they lived and died all month.
There was one replay with a great camera angle. It showed Gordon heading into 3rd with the 3rd base coach giving him the stop sign. Haven't seen the various videos side-by-side but the timing I have put together the ball was heading to the relay man before Gordon hit 3rd, There are a lot of what-ifs but IMO it was a proper call. If Gordon would have tried to score and get out there would be many complaining about taking the bat away from Salvy. Just think of the discussion earlier about the attempted steal by Butler in the wild card game.
Who would complain about taking the bat away from a guy who could barely walk and was 0 for the game? I freaking love the guy and think he has what it takes to rise to the occasion, but even beyond who was up next, the Royals had the chance to win the game or lose the game on their own terms. They didn't even throw a single strike to Salvy, and Bum was going so strong.

There were so many things that could happen on the relay, including Gordon getting out by a mile, a bad throw or rushed catch, a collision rule scenario that would have been legendary given the catcher, or a blocking the plate call that would have been even more legendary. Given our aggresive nature all season long, it just seemed odd to hold up there. It is what it is. I will never cease to imagine what could have been, but I don't hold it against either Gordon or Jirschele. Both had great seasons and did countless great things for the team.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by phuqueue »

aknowledgeableperson wrote:Only three FAs this year - Butler, Aoki and Shields.
Bullpen should be strong again, maybe not as strong like this but still top flight. An added plus may be with Hochevar possibly returning.
The infield returns with the likelihood of better offensive seasons from Moose and Hosmer.
The outfield remains strong with Gordon, Cain, and Dyson.
Starting pitching should be better than average with projected starters of Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas, Duffy with the possibilities of Finnegan and/or Zimmer.
There are not only three FAs this year, although the other FAs aren't core pieces. In fact, Hochevar himself is a free agent this year and probably the most significant of those that you didn't list. The others, who were all midseason acquisitions, are Ibanez, Willingham (who, I think, is planning to retire), Downs, and Frasor (who was great firming up the bullpen's soft underbelly, but is ultimately probably replaceable). However it's also worth keeping in mind that a lot of guys are due for pay raises. Many of them are arbitration eligible (Herrera, Holland, Duffy, Collins, Crow, Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Dyson, and Kratz), some of whom figure to make a lot more money than they did in 2014. Several guys on long term contracts are also getting bumps (Gordon, Infante, Perez, Guthrie, and Vargas). So this will affect our ability to retain or replace those guys who are FAs.

Not sure where you're seeing a "likelihood" of better offense, especially from Moustakas. Hosmer has been very hot/cold in his career, so if he came out next year and hit .300/.350/.450 it wouldn't be too unbelievable since he's done it before (on the other hand, if he came out and hit .250/.300/.350 it wouldn't be too unbelievable since he's done it before). For all the attention Moustakas got in the postseason, the only thing that was different for him was that he hit those home runs. His postseason numbers, .231/.259/.558 are, except for the homers, actually worse than his career: .236/.290/.379. Those homers make a big difference, of course (if, for instance, we pretend that those homers were just doubles, his SLG is .365, right in line with his career mark). But a 15 game, 55 plate appearance sample is not much to go on. In his career he homers in 2.6% of plate appearances, in the postseason he homered in 9.1%. For comparison, Barry Bonds homered in 6% of plate appearances for his career and 11% when he set the single season home run record). If you think we saw a sustainably new-and-improved Moustakas in the postseason, I think you might be disappointed in 2015. But hey, if we did, then I guess we can expect 50+ homers out of Moose next year -- if that happens I won't complain.

Gonna go out on a limb and guess that neither Finnegan nor Zimmer is in the rotation next year. Zimmer continues to experience shoulder problems, which have apparently so far turned out not to be as bad as feared, but it keeps recurring. He missed most of the season, then he came back and was great very briefly in the AFL, and now he's shut down again and just had surgery the other day, not expected to return to game action until late April. Finnegan's not going to be in the rotation because he's not even remotely close to ready yet. Pitching out of the bullpen is not like starting, and in any case the kid got lit up in a vanishingly small sample size in relief. He threw seven good September innings and kept us in the game against Oakland and basically coasted by on that goodwill as he compiled a 10.50 ERA throughout the postseason (5.54 if you add in his September innings). And projecting Guthrie and Vargas as "above average" seems generous in both cases.

That Time article you quote focuses way too much on steroids but the real reason that offense is dramatically down across the league is that the strike zone has grown to such proportions that a pitcher pretty much only needs to cast a glance toward the box to get a called strike (we saw this prominently throughout the postseason, with some particularly egregious calls even in game 7). This is a trend that is easily reversible if MLB decides to, which at some point they probably will since most fans are more interested in home runs than pitching duels.
There was one replay with a great camera angle. It showed Gordon heading into 3rd with the 3rd base coach giving him the stop sign. Haven't seen the various videos side-by-side but the timing I have put together the ball was heading to the relay man before Gordon hit 3rd, There are a lot of what-ifs but IMO it was a proper call. If Gordon would have tried to score and get out there would be many complaining about taking the bat away from Salvy. Just think of the discussion earlier about the attempted steal by Butler in the wild card game.
Definitely agree. It's easy to second guess it when you know that Perez ended up making the final out, that it couldn't have hurt to try anyway, but barring a second error on the play Gordon almost certainly would have been thrown out and we (at least I) would have been furious about the wasted out. Rany tweeted that the break even on that play is 30% (and guessed that Gordon's chances weren't even that good, which I agree with), but 30% is also only slightly better than Perez's chance of getting a hit (career .285 hitter) anyway. Unless Gordon is demonstrably more likely than that to get home, you roll the dice with Salvy's bat (although -- I'm not sure how gimpy Perez still was after that HBP, which had clearly at least hobbled him when he was on the basepaths earlier in the game -- you might consider pinch hitting Willingham there instead, but the point is you gamble on a hit rather than on baserunning and bad defense).
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by bobbyhawks »

phuqueue wrote:30% is also only slightly better than Perez's chance of getting a hit (career .285 hitter) anyway.
All revisionist history anyway, but I seriously doubt that Perez was actually .285 to get a hit at that moment. That is his average vs. average pitchers. He was facing Bumgarner. Additionally, that is his average in his average state of health. He could barely use his legs to swing, which is pretty important. I don't think that Yost could have made any other call given that it was Ned Yost, a man who sticks by players to a fault, but he could have also pinch hit there. Again, revisionist history.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by aknowledgeableperson »

the strike zone has grown to such proportions that a pitcher pretty much only needs to cast a glance toward the box to get a called strike
Funny thing. When growing up one particular call referred to a strike across the letters. The strike zone is still smaller than a few decades ago.
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Re: GO ROYALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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bobbyhawks wrote:
phuqueue wrote:30% is also only slightly better than Perez's chance of getting a hit (career .285 hitter) anyway.
All revisionist history anyway, but I seriously doubt that Perez was actually .285 to get a hit at that moment. That is his average vs. average pitchers. He was facing Bumgarner. Additionally, that is his average in his average state of health. He could barely use his legs to swing, which is pretty important. I don't think that Yost could have made any other call given that it was Ned Yost, a man who sticks by players to a fault, but he could have also pinch hit there. Again, revisionist history.
It's almost like I should have suggested pinch hitting later in the post -- ohhhhhh wait, that actually sounds kinda familiar, I think I might have.
aknowledgeableperson wrote:
the strike zone has grown to such proportions that a pitcher pretty much only needs to cast a glance toward the box to get a called strike
Funny thing. When growing up one particular call referred to a strike across the letters. The strike zone is still smaller than a few decades ago.
I'm not sure you can say that with any particular certainty given how much sharper the tools are for evaluating strike zone size now compared to then (there were no tools then, except your own eyes). In any case, the real problem is not necessarily the size of the strike zone at any one moment, but the pace with which it has been expanding. If you play with a large strike zone -- but you've always played with a large strike zone -- you can adjust as a hitter. If on the other hand the strike zone expands by 40 square inches -- that's nearly 10% -- in a few years (and continues to expand even now), it's impossible to know whether you should swing at a borderline (or, sometimes, even a not-so-borderline) pitch. This more than anything else is what's stunting offensive output. Steroids might give you the added strength to loft a ball over the wall that would otherwise have died at the track, maybe they help you keep your bat speed up, but they don't impart you with hand-eye coordination that you would otherwise lack. Leaguewide batting average in 2000, at the height of the steroid era, was .270. In 2007, a couple of years into the current testing program, but before the strike zone started to blow up, it had fallen all the way to... .268. It has fallen or held steady every year since (.264 in 2008; .262 in 2009; .257 in 2010; .255 in 2011 and 2012; .253 in 2013; .251 this year). So in the eight years 2000-2007 encompassing the onset of steroid testing, batting average fell two points (facile explanation: some would-be homers instead fell for outs; simple randomness probably played a bigger role). In the eight years 2007-2014, batting average has fallen 17 points. With or without steroids, guys can still see the ball as well as they ever could, but if they don't know what's a strike and what's not they can get called out looking, or they can swing at something they shouldn't have.
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