aknowledgeableperson wrote:Only three FAs this year - Butler, Aoki and Shields.
Bullpen should be strong again, maybe not as strong like this but still top flight. An added plus may be with Hochevar possibly returning.
The infield returns with the likelihood of better offensive seasons from Moose and Hosmer.
The outfield remains strong with Gordon, Cain, and Dyson.
Starting pitching should be better than average with projected starters of Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas, Duffy with the possibilities of Finnegan and/or Zimmer.
There are not only three FAs this year, although the other FAs aren't core pieces. In fact, Hochevar himself is a free agent this year and probably the most significant of those that you didn't list. The others, who were all midseason acquisitions, are Ibanez, Willingham (who, I think, is planning to retire), Downs, and Frasor (who was great firming up the bullpen's soft underbelly, but is ultimately probably replaceable). However it's also worth keeping in mind that a lot of guys are due for pay raises. Many of them are arbitration eligible (Herrera, Holland, Duffy, Collins, Crow, Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Dyson, and Kratz), some of whom figure to make a
lot more money than they did in 2014. Several guys on long term contracts are also getting bumps (Gordon, Infante, Perez, Guthrie, and Vargas). So this will affect our ability to retain or replace those guys who are FAs.
Not sure where you're seeing a "likelihood" of better offense, especially from Moustakas. Hosmer has been very hot/cold in his career, so if he came out next year and hit .300/.350/.450 it wouldn't be too unbelievable since he's done it before (on the other hand, if he came out and hit .250/.300/.350 it wouldn't be too unbelievable since he's done it before). For all the attention Moustakas got in the postseason, the only thing that was different for him was that he hit those home runs. His postseason numbers, .231/.259/.558 are, except for the homers, actually
worse than his career: .236/.290/.379. Those homers make a big difference, of course (if, for instance, we pretend that those homers were just doubles, his SLG is .365, right in line with his career mark). But a 15 game, 55 plate appearance sample is not much to go on. In his career he homers in 2.6% of plate appearances, in the postseason he homered in 9.1%. For comparison, Barry Bonds homered in 6% of plate appearances for his career and 11% when he set the single season home run record). If you think we saw a sustainably new-and-improved Moustakas in the postseason, I think you might be disappointed in 2015. But hey, if we did, then I guess we can expect 50+ homers out of Moose next year -- if that happens I won't complain.
Gonna go out on a limb and guess that neither Finnegan nor Zimmer is in the rotation next year. Zimmer continues to experience shoulder problems, which have apparently so far turned out not to be as bad as feared, but it keeps recurring. He missed most of the season, then he came back and was great very briefly in the AFL, and now he's shut down again and just had surgery the other day, not expected to return to game action until late April. Finnegan's not going to be in the rotation because he's not even remotely close to ready yet. Pitching out of the bullpen is not like starting, and in any case the kid got lit up in a vanishingly small sample size in relief. He threw seven good September innings and kept us in the game against Oakland and basically coasted by on that goodwill as he compiled a 10.50 ERA throughout the postseason (5.54 if you add in his September innings). And projecting Guthrie and Vargas as "above average" seems generous in both cases.
That Time article you quote focuses way too much on steroids but the real reason that offense is dramatically down across the league is that the strike zone has grown to such proportions that a pitcher pretty much only needs to cast a glance toward the box to get a called strike (we saw this prominently throughout the postseason, with some particularly egregious calls even in game 7). This is a trend that is easily reversible if MLB decides to, which at some point they probably will since most fans are more interested in home runs than pitching duels.
There was one replay with a great camera angle. It showed Gordon heading into 3rd with the 3rd base coach giving him the stop sign. Haven't seen the various videos side-by-side but the timing I have put together the ball was heading to the relay man before Gordon hit 3rd, There are a lot of what-ifs but IMO it was a proper call. If Gordon would have tried to score and get out there would be many complaining about taking the bat away from Salvy. Just think of the discussion earlier about the attempted steal by Butler in the wild card game.
Definitely agree. It's easy to second guess it when you know that Perez ended up making the final out, that it couldn't have hurt to try anyway, but barring a second error on the play Gordon almost certainly would have been thrown out and we (at least I) would have been furious about the wasted out. Rany tweeted that the break even on that play is 30% (and guessed that Gordon's chances weren't even that good, which I agree with), but 30% is also only slightly better than Perez's chance of getting a hit (career .285 hitter) anyway. Unless Gordon is demonstrably more likely than that to get home, you roll the dice with Salvy's bat (although -- I'm not sure how gimpy Perez still was after that HBP, which had clearly at least hobbled him when he was on the basepaths earlier in the game -- you might consider pinch hitting Willingham there instead, but the point is you gamble on a hit rather than on baserunning and bad defense).